Time-Series analysis of PM10 and PM2.5 pollutants and estimation of its health effects in Khorramabad city during a period of 5 years
Abstract
Introduction: Air pollution, particularly Particulate Matter (PM), poses a significant global health threat due to its deep penetration into the respiratory system, leading to or exacerbating cardiovascular and respiratory morbidities and mortalities, increased hospital admissions, and premature death. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends of PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations in Khorramabad city and to quantify their associated health impacts over a five-year period (2013-2017).
Materials and methods: In this descriptive-analytical study, hourly concentration data for PM10 and PM2.5 from 2013-2017 were obtained from the Khorramabad Environmental Protection Agency. Data underwent rigorous validation based on World Health Organization (WHO) criteria and Z-score method in SPSS to ensure reliability and remove outliers. Time-series analysis and visualization of pollutant variations performed using R software and the Openair package. Health effect quantification, including estimations of attributable mortality and morbidity, conducted using the AirQ2.2.3 model, integrating air quality data with epidemiological parameters such as Relative Risk (RR) and Baseline Incidence (BI).
Results: The study revealed an overall decreasing trend in PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations from 2013 to 2016, with a notable increase in PM10 concentration observed in 2017. The annual average concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 for the entire study period were estimated at approximately 65 μg/m3 and 35 μg/m3, respectively, significantly exceeding WHO air quality guidelines. Quantification of health effects indicated a total of 1634 attributable deaths due to PM10 exposure over the five years, comprising 530 cardiovascular deaths and 103 respiratory deaths. For PM2.5, the total attributable deaths were estimated at 933 individuals. The highest health burden for PM10 related to total respiratory visits (1341 cases) and cardiovascular deaths (530 cases). Both pollutants exhibited similar diurnal and weekly patterns, with peaks during morning and evening rush hours and mid-week days, and higher concentrations during warm seasons, influenced by dust storms and agricultural burning.
Conclusion: The study reveals consistently high levels of PM10 and PM2.5 in Khorramabad, especially during warmer seasons, leading to a substantial public health burden. These findings emphasize the critical need for effective interventions and long-term strategies to control air pollution and safeguard community health.
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7. Zolfaghari H, MASOUMPOUR SJ, SHAYGAN MS, Ahmadi M. A Synoptic Investigation of Dust Storms in Western Regions of Iran during 2005-2010 (A Case Study of Widespread Wave in July 2009). 2011.
8. Sanhueza PA, Reed GD, Davis WT, Miller TL. An environmental decision-making tool for evaluating ground-level ozone-related health effects. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association. 2003;53(12):1448-59.
9. Tominz R, Mazzoleni B, Daris F. Estimate of potential health benefits of the reduction of air pollution with PM10 in Trieste, Italy. Epidemiologia e prevenzione. 2005;29(3-4):149-55.
10. Carvalho H. New WHO global air quality guidelines: more pressure on nations to reduce air pollution levels. The Lancet Planetary Health. 2021;5(11):e760-e1.
11. Kelly FJ, Fussell JC. Size, source and chemical composition as determinants of toxicity attributable to ambient particulate matter. Atmospheric environment. 2012;60:504-26.
12. Gholampour A, Nabizadeh R, Hassanvand M, Taghipour H, Faridi S, Mahvi A. Investigation of the ambient particulate matter concentration changes and assessing its health impacts in Tabriz. Iranian Journal of Health and Environment. 2015;7(4):541-56.
13. Curtis AE, Smith TA, Ziganshin BA, Elefteriades JA. The mystery of the Z-score. Aorta. 2016;4(04):124-30.
14. Mellenbergh GJ, Mellenbergh GJ. Outliers. Counteracting Methodological Errors in Behavioral Research. 2019:293-308.
15. Carslaw DC, Ropkins K. Openair—an R package for air quality data analysis. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2012;27:52-61.
16. López-Villarrubia E, Ballester F, Iñiguez C, Peral N. Air pollution and mortality in the Canary Islands: a time-series analysis. Environmental Health. 2010;9:1-11.
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18. Krzyzanowski M, Cohen A, Anderson R. Quantification of health effects of exposure to air pollution. BMJ Publishing Group Ltd; 2002. p. 791-3.
19. Afshe A, Farzadifar L, S S. Quantifying the health effects of air pollution in Dezful city in 2015. The Third National Conference on Environment and Natural Resources2015.
20. Kermani M, Bahrami Asl F, Aghaei M, Karimzadeh S, Arfaeinia H, Godarzi G, et al. Quantification of health effects attributed to ozone in five metropolises of Iran using AirQ model. Journal of Health. 2015;6(3):266-80.
21. Faridi S, Shamsipour M, Krzyzanowski M, Künzli N, Amini H, Azimi F, et al. Long-term trends and health impact of PM2. 5 and O3 in Tehran, Iran, 2006–2015. Environment international. 2018;114:37-49.
22. Khorsandi H, Karimzade S, Aghaei M, Kargar H, Mousavi Moghanjooghi S. estimation and quantification of health effects attributed to no2 pollutant in the air of urmia, Iran. Studies in Medical Sciences. 2016;26(12):1054-62.
23. Zallaghi E, Goudarzi G, Geravandi S, Mohammadi MJ. Epidemiological indexes attributed to particulates with less than 10 micrometers in the air of Ahvaz City during 2010 to 2013. Health Scope. 2014;3(4).
24. Sabzevari E, Sobhanardakani S. Analysis of selected heavy metals in indoor dust collected from city of Khorramabad, Iran: A case study. Jundishapur Journal of Health Sciences. 2018;10(3).
25. Iran S. Statistical Centre of Iran. Iran Population and Housing Census. 2016;2016.
26. Rashidi R, Almasian M. The measurement of volatile organic compounds in the ambient air of Khorramabad city and its comparison with current standards. Yafteh. 2015;16(4):54-61.
27. Melkonyan A, Kuttler W. Long-term analysis of NO, NO2 and O3 concentrations in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Atmospheric Environment. 2012;60:316-26.
28. Habib U, Zucker G, Blochle M, Judex F, Haase J, editors. Outliers detection method using clustering in buildings data. IECON 2015-41st Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society; 2015: IEEE.
29. Zalaghi E. Survey of health effects of air pollution Ahvaz, Bushehr and Kermanshah with use of AIRQ Model: MSc Thesis, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Ahvaz; 2010.
30. Mamta P, Bassin J. Analysis of ambient air quality using air quality index-A case study. International Journal of Advanced Engineering Technology. 2010;1(2):106-14.
31. Organization WH. Ambient air pollution: A global assessment of exposure and burden of disease. Clean Air Journal. 2016;26(2):6-.
32. Arvin A. Investigation of the Effect of Less-Than-2.5-Microns Dust Particles on Human Health in Isfahan City. Spatial Planning. 2019;9(3):111-24.
33. Salmabadi H, Saeedi M, Roy A, Kaskaoutis DG. Quantifying the contribution of Middle Eastern dust sources to PM10 levels in Ahvaz, Southwest Iran. Atmospheric Research. 2023;295:106993.
34. Mirhossieni SH, Birjandi M, Zare MR, Fatehizadeh A. Analysis of Particulate Matter (PM10 and PM2. 5) Concentration in Khorramabad City, Iran. 2013.
35. Ganguly R, Sharma D, Kumar P. Trend analysis of observational PM10 concentrations in Shimla city, India. Sustainable Cities and Society. 2019;51:101719.
36. Wang Y, Ying Q, Hu J, Zhang H. Spatial and temporal variations of six criteria air pollutants in 31 provincial capital cities in China during 2013–2014. Environment international. 2014;73:413-22.
37. Kamani H, Hassanvand MS, Khammari A, Haghighat S. Trend of ambient air particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm and smaller in Zahedan city in 2018-2019. Iranian Journal of Health and Environment. 2021;13(4):639-52.
38. Amarloei a, jonidi jafari a, asilian mohabadi h, asadollahi k. The Evaluation of PM10, PM2.5 and PM1 Concentration during Dust Storm Events in Ilam city, from Mar 2013 through Feb 2014. Journal of Ilam University of Medical Sciences. 2014;22(4):240-59.
39. Raispour K. Evaluation of spatiotemporal column particulate matter concentration (PM2. 5) due to dust events in Iran using data from NASAN/MERRA-2 reanalysis model. Journal of the Earth and Space Physics. 2021;47(2):333-54.
40. Krzyzanowski M, Cohen A, Anderson R. Quantification of health effects of exposure to air pollution. BMJ Publishing Group Ltd; 2002.
41. Jafari H, HassanPour S, Rahili KHorasanI L. selection and space-pla ce analyzes pollution and air pollution sources in the big city of Kermanshah. Journal of Environmental Studies. 2014;40(1):51-64.
42. Mohammadi A, Azhdarpoor A, Shahsavani A, Tabatabaee H. Health impacts of exposure to PM10 on inhabitants of Shiraz, Iran. Health Scope. 2015;4(4).
43. Asl FB, Leili M, Vaziri Y, Arian SS, Cristaldi A, Conti GO, et al. Health impacts quantification of ambient air pollutants using AirQ model approach in Hamadan, Iran. Environmental research. 2018;161:114-21.
44. Geravandi S, Goudarzi G, Mohammadi MJ, Taghavirad SS, Salmanzadeh S. Sulfur and nitrogen dioxide exposure and the incidence of health endpoints in Ahvaz, Iran. Health Scope. 2015;4(2).
45. Noferesti AR, Atabi F, Nouri J, MiriLavasani MR, Jozi SA. Predicting the mortality rate due to particulate matters using AirQ software and health risk assessment in the city of Sanandaj. 2019.
46. Mokhtari M, Miri M, Mohammadi A, Khorsandi H, Hajizadeh Y, Abdolahnejad A. Assessment of air quality index and health impact of PM10, PM2. 5 and SO2 in Yazd, Iran. Journal of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. 2015;25(131):14-23.
47. Yaghmaeian K, Ghobakhloo S, Mazloomi S. Evaluation of health effects of PM2. 5 air pollutant on Semnan air quality in 2017. Journal of health research in community. 2018;4(3):20-33.
48. Hopke PK, Nazari SSH, Hadei M, Yarahmadi M, Kermani M, Yarahmadi E, et al. Spatial and temporal trends of short-term health impacts of PM2. 5 in Iranian cities; a modelling approach (2013-2016). Aerosol and air quality research. 2018;18(2):497-504.
49. Franklin M, Zeka A, Schwartz J. Association between PM2. 5 and all-cause and specific-cause mortality in 27 US communities. Journal of exposure science & environmental epidemiology. 2007;17(3):279-87.
2. Loomis D, Grosse Y, Lauby-Secretan B, El Ghissassi F, Bouvard V, Benbrahim-Tallaa L, et al. The carcinogenicity of outdoor air pollution. The lancet oncology. 2013;14(13):1262-3.
3. Tertre AL, Quénel P, Eilstein D, Medina S, Prouvost H, Pascal L, et al. Short-term effects of air pollution on mortality in nine French cities: a quantitative summary. Archives of Environmental Health: An International Journal. 2002;57(4):311-9.
4. Finkelstein MM, Jerrett M, Sears MR. Traffic air pollution and mortality rate advancement periods. american Journal of epidemiology. 2004;160(2):173-7.
5. Oh SM, Kim HR, Park YJ, Lee SY, Chung KH. Organic extracts of urban air pollution particulate matter (PM2. 5)-induced genotoxicity and oxidative stress in human lung bronchial epithelial cells (BEAS-2B cells). Mutation Research/Genetic Toxicology and Environmental Mutagenesis. 2011;723(2):142-51.
6. Eskandari Z, Maleki H, Neisi A, Riahi A, Hamid V, Goudarzi G. Temporal fluctuations of PM 2.5 and PM 10, population exposure, and their health impacts in Dezful city, Iran. Journal of Environmental Health Science and Engineering. 2020;18:723-31.
7. Zolfaghari H, MASOUMPOUR SJ, SHAYGAN MS, Ahmadi M. A Synoptic Investigation of Dust Storms in Western Regions of Iran during 2005-2010 (A Case Study of Widespread Wave in July 2009). 2011.
8. Sanhueza PA, Reed GD, Davis WT, Miller TL. An environmental decision-making tool for evaluating ground-level ozone-related health effects. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association. 2003;53(12):1448-59.
9. Tominz R, Mazzoleni B, Daris F. Estimate of potential health benefits of the reduction of air pollution with PM10 in Trieste, Italy. Epidemiologia e prevenzione. 2005;29(3-4):149-55.
10. Carvalho H. New WHO global air quality guidelines: more pressure on nations to reduce air pollution levels. The Lancet Planetary Health. 2021;5(11):e760-e1.
11. Kelly FJ, Fussell JC. Size, source and chemical composition as determinants of toxicity attributable to ambient particulate matter. Atmospheric environment. 2012;60:504-26.
12. Gholampour A, Nabizadeh R, Hassanvand M, Taghipour H, Faridi S, Mahvi A. Investigation of the ambient particulate matter concentration changes and assessing its health impacts in Tabriz. Iranian Journal of Health and Environment. 2015;7(4):541-56.
13. Curtis AE, Smith TA, Ziganshin BA, Elefteriades JA. The mystery of the Z-score. Aorta. 2016;4(04):124-30.
14. Mellenbergh GJ, Mellenbergh GJ. Outliers. Counteracting Methodological Errors in Behavioral Research. 2019:293-308.
15. Carslaw DC, Ropkins K. Openair—an R package for air quality data analysis. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2012;27:52-61.
16. López-Villarrubia E, Ballester F, Iñiguez C, Peral N. Air pollution and mortality in the Canary Islands: a time-series analysis. Environmental Health. 2010;9:1-11.
17. Goudarzi G, Daryanoosh S, Godini H, Hopke P, Sicard P, De Marco A, et al. Health risk assessment of exposure to the Middle-Eastern Dust storms in the Iranian megacity of Kermanshah. Public health. 2017;148:109-16.
18. Krzyzanowski M, Cohen A, Anderson R. Quantification of health effects of exposure to air pollution. BMJ Publishing Group Ltd; 2002. p. 791-3.
19. Afshe A, Farzadifar L, S S. Quantifying the health effects of air pollution in Dezful city in 2015. The Third National Conference on Environment and Natural Resources2015.
20. Kermani M, Bahrami Asl F, Aghaei M, Karimzadeh S, Arfaeinia H, Godarzi G, et al. Quantification of health effects attributed to ozone in five metropolises of Iran using AirQ model. Journal of Health. 2015;6(3):266-80.
21. Faridi S, Shamsipour M, Krzyzanowski M, Künzli N, Amini H, Azimi F, et al. Long-term trends and health impact of PM2. 5 and O3 in Tehran, Iran, 2006–2015. Environment international. 2018;114:37-49.
22. Khorsandi H, Karimzade S, Aghaei M, Kargar H, Mousavi Moghanjooghi S. estimation and quantification of health effects attributed to no2 pollutant in the air of urmia, Iran. Studies in Medical Sciences. 2016;26(12):1054-62.
23. Zallaghi E, Goudarzi G, Geravandi S, Mohammadi MJ. Epidemiological indexes attributed to particulates with less than 10 micrometers in the air of Ahvaz City during 2010 to 2013. Health Scope. 2014;3(4).
24. Sabzevari E, Sobhanardakani S. Analysis of selected heavy metals in indoor dust collected from city of Khorramabad, Iran: A case study. Jundishapur Journal of Health Sciences. 2018;10(3).
25. Iran S. Statistical Centre of Iran. Iran Population and Housing Census. 2016;2016.
26. Rashidi R, Almasian M. The measurement of volatile organic compounds in the ambient air of Khorramabad city and its comparison with current standards. Yafteh. 2015;16(4):54-61.
27. Melkonyan A, Kuttler W. Long-term analysis of NO, NO2 and O3 concentrations in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Atmospheric Environment. 2012;60:316-26.
28. Habib U, Zucker G, Blochle M, Judex F, Haase J, editors. Outliers detection method using clustering in buildings data. IECON 2015-41st Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society; 2015: IEEE.
29. Zalaghi E. Survey of health effects of air pollution Ahvaz, Bushehr and Kermanshah with use of AIRQ Model: MSc Thesis, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Ahvaz; 2010.
30. Mamta P, Bassin J. Analysis of ambient air quality using air quality index-A case study. International Journal of Advanced Engineering Technology. 2010;1(2):106-14.
31. Organization WH. Ambient air pollution: A global assessment of exposure and burden of disease. Clean Air Journal. 2016;26(2):6-.
32. Arvin A. Investigation of the Effect of Less-Than-2.5-Microns Dust Particles on Human Health in Isfahan City. Spatial Planning. 2019;9(3):111-24.
33. Salmabadi H, Saeedi M, Roy A, Kaskaoutis DG. Quantifying the contribution of Middle Eastern dust sources to PM10 levels in Ahvaz, Southwest Iran. Atmospheric Research. 2023;295:106993.
34. Mirhossieni SH, Birjandi M, Zare MR, Fatehizadeh A. Analysis of Particulate Matter (PM10 and PM2. 5) Concentration in Khorramabad City, Iran. 2013.
35. Ganguly R, Sharma D, Kumar P. Trend analysis of observational PM10 concentrations in Shimla city, India. Sustainable Cities and Society. 2019;51:101719.
36. Wang Y, Ying Q, Hu J, Zhang H. Spatial and temporal variations of six criteria air pollutants in 31 provincial capital cities in China during 2013–2014. Environment international. 2014;73:413-22.
37. Kamani H, Hassanvand MS, Khammari A, Haghighat S. Trend of ambient air particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm and smaller in Zahedan city in 2018-2019. Iranian Journal of Health and Environment. 2021;13(4):639-52.
38. Amarloei a, jonidi jafari a, asilian mohabadi h, asadollahi k. The Evaluation of PM10, PM2.5 and PM1 Concentration during Dust Storm Events in Ilam city, from Mar 2013 through Feb 2014. Journal of Ilam University of Medical Sciences. 2014;22(4):240-59.
39. Raispour K. Evaluation of spatiotemporal column particulate matter concentration (PM2. 5) due to dust events in Iran using data from NASAN/MERRA-2 reanalysis model. Journal of the Earth and Space Physics. 2021;47(2):333-54.
40. Krzyzanowski M, Cohen A, Anderson R. Quantification of health effects of exposure to air pollution. BMJ Publishing Group Ltd; 2002.
41. Jafari H, HassanPour S, Rahili KHorasanI L. selection and space-pla ce analyzes pollution and air pollution sources in the big city of Kermanshah. Journal of Environmental Studies. 2014;40(1):51-64.
42. Mohammadi A, Azhdarpoor A, Shahsavani A, Tabatabaee H. Health impacts of exposure to PM10 on inhabitants of Shiraz, Iran. Health Scope. 2015;4(4).
43. Asl FB, Leili M, Vaziri Y, Arian SS, Cristaldi A, Conti GO, et al. Health impacts quantification of ambient air pollutants using AirQ model approach in Hamadan, Iran. Environmental research. 2018;161:114-21.
44. Geravandi S, Goudarzi G, Mohammadi MJ, Taghavirad SS, Salmanzadeh S. Sulfur and nitrogen dioxide exposure and the incidence of health endpoints in Ahvaz, Iran. Health Scope. 2015;4(2).
45. Noferesti AR, Atabi F, Nouri J, MiriLavasani MR, Jozi SA. Predicting the mortality rate due to particulate matters using AirQ software and health risk assessment in the city of Sanandaj. 2019.
46. Mokhtari M, Miri M, Mohammadi A, Khorsandi H, Hajizadeh Y, Abdolahnejad A. Assessment of air quality index and health impact of PM10, PM2. 5 and SO2 in Yazd, Iran. Journal of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. 2015;25(131):14-23.
47. Yaghmaeian K, Ghobakhloo S, Mazloomi S. Evaluation of health effects of PM2. 5 air pollutant on Semnan air quality in 2017. Journal of health research in community. 2018;4(3):20-33.
48. Hopke PK, Nazari SSH, Hadei M, Yarahmadi M, Kermani M, Yarahmadi E, et al. Spatial and temporal trends of short-term health impacts of PM2. 5 in Iranian cities; a modelling approach (2013-2016). Aerosol and air quality research. 2018;18(2):497-504.
49. Franklin M, Zeka A, Schwartz J. Association between PM2. 5 and all-cause and specific-cause mortality in 27 US communities. Journal of exposure science & environmental epidemiology. 2007;17(3):279-87.
| Files | ||
| Issue | Vol 10 No 2 (2025): Spring 2025 | |
| Section | Original Research | |
| Keywords | ||
| Temporal trends; Health effects; AirQ model; Khorramabad; Particulate matter | ||
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How to Cite
1.
Azimi F, Ghaderpoori M, Hafezi F. Time-Series analysis of PM10 and PM2.5 pollutants and estimation of its health effects in Khorramabad city during a period of 5 years. JAPH. 2025;10(2):225-242.
