Health impacts assessment and economic costs of implementing three scenarios of the clean air act in one of the largest middle east cities (2017-2026): An AirQ+ modeling
-
Mozhgan Panji
,
Abbas Shahsavani
,
Yousef Rashidi
,
Seyed Saeid Hashemi Nazari
,
Anoushiravan Mohseni Bandpei
,
Majid Kermani
,
Zahra Namvar
Abstract
Introduction: This study aimed to assess the health impacts and economic costs of implementing the scenarios of decommissioning end-of-life cars and motorcycles and equipping buses with soot filters in Tehran, one of the largest cities in the Middle East, over a period of ten years (2017-2026) using the AIRQ+ model.
Materials and methods: To start, the emission weights of Particulate matter (PM2.5) emitted from the vehicles mentioned in the scenarios were extracted from the Comprehensive National Action Plan for Reducing Air Pollution. Then the concentrations of PM2.5 were calculated using AERMOD. Finally, the AIRQ+ model was used to calculate the health effects of the scenarios over ten years.
Results: The results indicated that implementing the total of three scenarios during ten years led to a reduction in mortality rates due to all causes, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), lung cancer, Acute Lower Respiratory tract Infection (ALRI), Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD), and stroke by 14.89%, 6.16%, 31.51%, 19.5%, 16.5%, and 17.38%, respectively. In addition, decommissioning end-oflife cars and motorcycles separately led to a 6.75% and 6.53% reduction in deaths from all causes, 2.54% and 2.46% from COPD, 18.40% and 18.01% from lung cancer, 11.16% and 11% from ALRI, 12.82% and 12.69% from IHD, and 12.12% and 12.96% from stroke.
Conclusion: The results indicate that the implementation of these scenarios during ten years has positive effects on reducing deaths attributed by PM2.5 particles, but due to population growth, it has no effect on reducing economic costs.
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19. Shahsavani A, Jandaghi J, Mohseni bandpey A, Farhadi M, Kermani M, Yarahmadi M, et al. Report on the quantification of health and economic effects attributed to PM in 27 cities of the country in 1400, Tehran: Ministry of Health and Medical Education 2022.
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22. Yarahmadi M, Hadei M, Nazari SSH, Conti GO, Alipour MR, Ferrante M, et al. Mortality assessment attributed to long-term exposure to fine particles in ambient air of the megacity of Tehran, Iran. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 2018;25(14):14254-62.
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24. Aldegunde JAÁ, Bolaños EQ, Fernández-Sánchez A, Saba M, Caraballo L. Environmental and Health Benefits Assessment of Reducing PM2. 5 Concentrations in Urban Areas in Developing Countries: Case Study Cartagena de Indias. Environments. 2023;10(3):42.
25. Pisoni E, Thunis P, De Meij A, Wilson J, Bessagnet B, Crippa M, et al. Modelling the air quality benefits of EU climate mitigation policies using two different PM2. 5-related health impact methodologies. Environment International. 2023;172:107760.
26. Xie Y, Zhong H, Weng Z, Guo X, Kim SE, Wu S. PM2. 5 concentration declining saves health expenditure in China. Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering. 2023;17(7):90.
27. Jagiełło P, Struzewska J, Jeleniewicz G, Kamiński JW. Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the National Clean Air Programme in Terms of Health Impacts from Exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 Concentrations in Poland. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022;20(1):530.
28. Wang Y, Hu J, Zhu J, Li J, Qin M, Liao H, et al. Health Burden and economic impacts attributed to PM2. 5 and O3 in China from 2010 to 2050 under different representative concentration pathway scenarios. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. 2021;173:105731.
29. Toscano D, Murena F. The historical trend of air pollution and its impact on human health in Campania region (Italy). Atmosphere. 2021;12(5):553.
30. Kochi I, Loomis J, Champ P, Donovan G, editors. Health and economic impact of wildfires: literature review and impact assessment. Proceedings of the Third International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: Common Approaches and Problems; 2010: DIANE Publishing.
31. Khoshakhlagh AH, Mohammadzadeh M, Morais S. Air quality in Tehran, Iran: Spatio-temporal characteristics, human health effects, economic costs and recommendations for good practice. Atmospheric Environment: X. 2023;19:100222.
32. Heger M, Sarraf M, Heger MP. Air pollution in Tehran: health costs, sources, and policies. 2018.
33. Bayat R, Ashrafi K, Motlagh MS, Hassanvand MS, Daroudi R, Fink G, et al. Health impact and related cost of ambient air pollution in Tehran. Environmental research. 2019;176:108547.
34. Wang Y, Hu J, Zhu J, Li J, Qin M, Liao H, et al. Health Burden and economic impacts attributed to PM2.5 and O3 in china from 2010 to 2050 under different representative concentration pathway scenarios. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. 2021;173:105731.
35. Martinez GS, Spadaro JV, Chapizanis D, Kendrovski V, Kochubovski M, Mudu P. Health impacts and economic costs of air pollution in the metropolitan area of Skopje. International journal of environmental research and public health. 2018;15(4):626.
36. Tabibzadeh SA-S, Hosseini SA, Mohammadi P, Etminan A, Norouzi H. Quantification of mortality associated with particulate matter using air Q model in ambient air in Shiraz, Iran. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies. 2022;31(1):551-9.
2. Adam M, Schikowski T, Carsin AE, Cai Y, Jacquemin B, Sanchez M, et al. Adult lung function and long-term air pollution exposure. ESCAPE: a multicentre cohort study and meta-analysis. European respiratory journal. 2015;45(1):38-50.
3. Pozzer A, Anenberg S, Dey S, Haines A, Lelieveld J, Chowdhury S. Mortality attributable to ambient air pollution: A review of global estimates. GeoHealth. 2023;7(1):e2022GH000711.
4. Ansari M, Ehrampoush MH. Meteorological correlates and AirQ+ health risk assessment of ambient fine particulate matter in Tehran, Iran. Environmental research. 2019;170:141-50.
5. Naghan DJ, Neisi A, Goudarzi G, Dastoorpoor M, Fadaei A, Angali KA. Evaluation of ozone, PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations and estimation of attributed health effects based on AirQ+ on residents of Ahvaz, Iran (2012-2018). Journal of Air Pollution and Health. 2021; 6(4): 243-256.
6. Hadei M, Hopke PK, Shahsavani A, Jahanmehr N, Rahmatinia M, Farhadi M, et al. Mortality and morbidity economic burden due to PM2.5 and ozone: An AirQ+ modelling in Iran. Journal of Air Pollution and Health. 2020 May 26;5(1):1-0.
7. Halek F, Kavouci A, Montehaie H. Role of motor-vehicles and trend of air borne particulate in the Great Tehran area, Iran. International journal of environmental health research. 2004;14(4):307-13.
8. Mohammadiha A, Malakooti H, Esfahanian V. Development of reduction scenarios for criteria air pollutants emission in Tehran Traffic Sector, Iran. Science of the Total Environment. 2018;622:17-28.
9. Shahbazi H, Reyhanian M, Hosseini V, Afshin H. The relative contributions of mobile sources to air pollutant emissions in Tehran, Iran: an emission inventory approach. Emission control science and technology. 2016;2:44-56.
10. Iran ICo. Clean Air Law [In Persian]: Islamic Council Research Center; 2017 [Available from: https://rc.majlis.ir/fa/law/show/1030618.
11. Henneman LR, Liu C, Mulholland JA, Russell AG. Evaluating the effectiveness of air quality regulations: A review of accountability studies and frameworks. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association. 2017;67(2):144-72.
12. Oliveri Conti G, Heibati B, Kloog I, Fiore M, Ferrante M. A review of AirQ Models and their applications for forecasting the air pollution health outcomes. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 2017;24:6426-45.
13. Macêdo MFM, Ramos ALD. Vehicle atmospheric pollution evaluation using AERMOD model at avenue in a Brazilian capital city. Air quality, atmosphere & health. 2020;13:309-20.
14. Yunesian M, Rostami R, Zarei A, Fazlzadeh M, Janjani H. Exposure to high levels of PM2.5 and PM10 in the metropolis of Tehran and the associated health risks during 2016–2017. Microchemical Journal. 2019;150:104174.
15. Company AQC. Archive of daily reports Tehran Air Quality Control Company2023 [Available from: http://airnow.tehran.ir/home/DaiyAQIArchive.aspx.
16. Iran´s Statistics Center 2022 [Available from: https://www.amar.org.ir/.
17. Mahotchi-saeed K, Esfahanian V, Ahmadikia H, Ohadi-Hamedani A, Hojat Y, Khazini L, et al. The management report of preparing the air pollutant release list, including man-made sources, and compiling and evaluating the main scenarios for reducing air pollution in Iran's metropolises.2021.
18. Hopke PK, Nazari SSH, Hadei M, Yarahmadi M, Kermani M, Yarahmadi E, et al. Spatial and temporal trends of short-term health impacts of PM2. 5 in Iranian cities; a modelling approach (2013-2016). Aerosol and air quality research. 2018;18(2):497-504.
19. Shahsavani A, Jandaghi J, Mohseni bandpey A, Farhadi M, Kermani M, Yarahmadi M, et al. Report on the quantification of health and economic effects attributed to PM in 27 cities of the country in 1400, Tehran: Ministry of Health and Medical Education 2022.
20. Rovira J, Domingo JL, Schuhmacher M. Air quality, health impacts and burden of disease due to air pollution (PM10, PM2.5, NO2 and O3): Application of AirQ+ model to the Camp de Tarragona County (Catalonia, Spain). Science of The Total Environment. 2020;703:135538.
21. Bayat R, Ashrafi K, Shafiepour Motlagh M, Hassanvand MS, Daroudi R, Fink G, et al. Health impact and related cost of ambient air pollution in Tehran. Environmental Research. 2019;176:108547.
22. Yarahmadi M, Hadei M, Nazari SSH, Conti GO, Alipour MR, Ferrante M, et al. Mortality assessment attributed to long-term exposure to fine particles in ambient air of the megacity of Tehran, Iran. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 2018;25(14):14254-62.
23. Namvar Z, Hadei M, Hashemi SS, Shahhosseini E, Hopke PK, Rahmatinia M, et al. Air pollution and hospital admissions and deaths due to respiratory infections in megacity of Tehran: A time series analysis. Journal of Air Pollution and Health. 2021.
24. Aldegunde JAÁ, Bolaños EQ, Fernández-Sánchez A, Saba M, Caraballo L. Environmental and Health Benefits Assessment of Reducing PM2. 5 Concentrations in Urban Areas in Developing Countries: Case Study Cartagena de Indias. Environments. 2023;10(3):42.
25. Pisoni E, Thunis P, De Meij A, Wilson J, Bessagnet B, Crippa M, et al. Modelling the air quality benefits of EU climate mitigation policies using two different PM2. 5-related health impact methodologies. Environment International. 2023;172:107760.
26. Xie Y, Zhong H, Weng Z, Guo X, Kim SE, Wu S. PM2. 5 concentration declining saves health expenditure in China. Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering. 2023;17(7):90.
27. Jagiełło P, Struzewska J, Jeleniewicz G, Kamiński JW. Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the National Clean Air Programme in Terms of Health Impacts from Exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 Concentrations in Poland. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022;20(1):530.
28. Wang Y, Hu J, Zhu J, Li J, Qin M, Liao H, et al. Health Burden and economic impacts attributed to PM2. 5 and O3 in China from 2010 to 2050 under different representative concentration pathway scenarios. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. 2021;173:105731.
29. Toscano D, Murena F. The historical trend of air pollution and its impact on human health in Campania region (Italy). Atmosphere. 2021;12(5):553.
30. Kochi I, Loomis J, Champ P, Donovan G, editors. Health and economic impact of wildfires: literature review and impact assessment. Proceedings of the Third International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: Common Approaches and Problems; 2010: DIANE Publishing.
31. Khoshakhlagh AH, Mohammadzadeh M, Morais S. Air quality in Tehran, Iran: Spatio-temporal characteristics, human health effects, economic costs and recommendations for good practice. Atmospheric Environment: X. 2023;19:100222.
32. Heger M, Sarraf M, Heger MP. Air pollution in Tehran: health costs, sources, and policies. 2018.
33. Bayat R, Ashrafi K, Motlagh MS, Hassanvand MS, Daroudi R, Fink G, et al. Health impact and related cost of ambient air pollution in Tehran. Environmental research. 2019;176:108547.
34. Wang Y, Hu J, Zhu J, Li J, Qin M, Liao H, et al. Health Burden and economic impacts attributed to PM2.5 and O3 in china from 2010 to 2050 under different representative concentration pathway scenarios. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. 2021;173:105731.
35. Martinez GS, Spadaro JV, Chapizanis D, Kendrovski V, Kochubovski M, Mudu P. Health impacts and economic costs of air pollution in the metropolitan area of Skopje. International journal of environmental research and public health. 2018;15(4):626.
36. Tabibzadeh SA-S, Hosseini SA, Mohammadi P, Etminan A, Norouzi H. Quantification of mortality associated with particulate matter using air Q model in ambient air in Shiraz, Iran. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies. 2022;31(1):551-9.
| Files | ||
| Issue | Vol 8 No 4 (2023): Autumn 2023 | |
| Section | Original Research | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.18502/japh.v8i4.14537 | |
| Keywords | ||
| Clean air law; Economic costs; Health impact assessment; Scenarios; Tehran | ||
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
How to Cite
1.
Panji M, Shahsavani A, Rashidi Y, Hashemi Nazari SS, Mohseni Bandpei A, Kermani M, Namvar Z. Health impacts assessment and economic costs of implementing three scenarios of the clean air act in one of the largest middle east cities (2017-2026): An AirQ+ modeling. JAPH. 2024;8(4):411-424.
