Investigation of dust storms in Ilam and the performance analysis of simulation of 6 numerical prediction models at a severe dust storm in west of Iran
Introduction: Many countries in the arid and semi-arid regions of the world encounter dust storms phenomenon, that is one of the meteorological problems leading to daily life disturbances, financial losses, public health risks and the destructive environmental impacts.
Materials and methods: Although the dust storm is historically recorded as an old event in some provinces of Iran, nowadays it becomes a new event in the other provinces such as Ilam in the west of Iran. Dust storms have been remarkably increased since 2007 in a period of 20 years (1997-2017) of daily frequency of dust storms in Ilam station. The dust storm is mostly observed in Ilam city (center of Ilam province) in 2011, after the years of rainfall deficiency.
Results: After statiscal investigation of dust storms in Ilam province and factors affecting its formation, the dust storm from 3nd to 6th July 2016 are studied that reduced visibility so much in West and SW of Iran. On the of 3rd- 4th of July of the same year, the intensity of the dust storm was so high that made the visibility decresses severely in Ilam city. The source of this dust storm was the eastern areas of Syria and central Iraq. This fact also appeared in the satellite images and in the output of HYSPLIT MODEL. The output of WRF-Chem Model clearly shows the dust mass over East-Syria, Central and East Iraq and West and SW Iran.
Conclusion: Model outputs in intensity of surface dust concentration of MACC-ECMWF, NASA-GEOS, NCEP-NGAC, NMMB-BSC, and BSC-DREAM8b models are compared to the observation of the aerosol concentration in Ilam city and results show that NASA-GEOS model has better performance, based on the results compared to the other models.
In display of dust dispertion on Iran, the middle of all models is more compatible with reality.
2. Karegar E, Bodagh Jamali J, Ranjbar Saadat Abadi A, Moeenoddini M. Simulation and Numerical Analysis of
severe dust storms Iran East. Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental hazarts. 2016; (4) : 101-119.
3. Hossein hamzeh N , Fattahi E, Zoljodi M , Ghaffarian P, Ranjbar A. Study and simulation of summer dust in West and Southwest of Iran. Journal of climate research. spring 2017. (11):91-109.
4. Hamidi M, Kavianpour M, Shao Y. Synoptic analysis of dust storms in the Middle East. Journal of Asia-Pacific
Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. 2013; 49(3): 279-286.
5. Mohammadi F, Kamali S, Eskandary M. Tracing dust sources in different atmosphere levels of Tehran using hybrid single-particle lagrangian integrated trajectory (HYSPLIT). 2015:39-54
6. Malakooti A, Baba Hossein S. Formation and Evolution of a heavy dust storm over Middle East: A Numerical Case Study. Journal of Geography and environmental hazards. 2014.
7. Rezazadeh M, Irannejad P, Shao Y. Dust emission simulation with the WRF-Chem model using new surface data in the Middle East region. Journal of earth and space science. 2013; (39) :191-212.
8. Cuevas E, Basart S, Baldasano Recio JM, Berjon A. The MACC-II 2007-2008 reanalysis: atmospheric dust
evaluation and characterization over northern Africa and the Middle East. Atmospheric chemistry and physics. 2015 Jan 1;15(8):3991-4024.
9. Colarco PR, Nowottnick EP, Randles CA, Yi B, Yang P, Kim KM, et al. Impact of radiatively interactive dust aerosols in the NASA GEOS‐5 climate model: Sensitivity to dust particle shape and refractive index. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2014 Jan 27;119(2):753-86.
10. Gerasopoulos E, Kokkalis P, Amiridis V, Liakakou E, Perez C, Haustein K, et al. Dust specific extinction cross-sections over the Eastern Mediterranean using the BSC-DREAM model and sun photometer data: the case of urban environments. Ann. Geophys. 2009 Jul 22;27:2903-12.
11. Jalali N, Iranmanesh F, Davoodi M. Identification on dust storm sources and their affecting areas in southwest
provinces of Iran using MODIS image. Manage. and Engine. Watershed of Journal, 2017, 3,9: 318-331.
12. Benedetti A, Baldasano J, Basart S, Benincasa F, Boucher O, Brooks M, et al. Operational dust prediction, Journal of Mineral Dust , 2014, pp. 223-265.
13. Hortal M, Simmons AJ. Use of reduced Gaussian grids in spectral models. Monthly Weather Review. 1991 Apr;119(4):1057-74.
14. Morcrette JJ, Beljaars A, Benedetti A, Jones L, Boucher O. Sea‐salt and dust aerosols in the ECMWF IFS model. Geophysical Research Letters. 2008 Dec;35(24).
15. Morcrette JJ, Boucher O, Jones L, Salmond D, Bechtold P, Beljaars A, et al. Aerosol analysis and forecast in the
European Centre for medium‐range weather forecasts integrated forecast system: Forward modeling. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2009 Mar 27;114(D6).
16. Nowottnick E, Colarco P, da Silva A, Hlavka D, McGill M. The fate of saharan dust across the atlantic and implications for a central american dust barrier.
17. Nowottnick E, Colarco P, da Silva A, Hlavka D, McGill M. The fate of saharan dust across the atlantic and implications for a central american dust barrier.
18. Lu S, Huang HC, Hou YT, Tang Y, McQueen J, da Silva A, et al. Development of NCEP Global Aerosol
Forecasting System: an overview and its application for improving weather and air quality forecasts. In- NATO Science for Peace and Security Series: Air Pollution Modeling and Its Application XX, available at: http://www. jcsda. noaa. gov/documents/meetings/wkshp2009/Session-3/3.11. Poster-Sarah. Lu. pdf (last access: 29 May 2014) 2010 (pp. 451-454).
19. Lu CH, da Silva A, Wang J, Moorthi S, Chin M, Colarco P, et al. The implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol
Component (NGAC) Version 1.0 for global dust forecasting at NOAA/NCEP. Geoscientific model development. 2016;9(5):1905.
20. Pérez C, Haustein K, Janjic Z, Jorba O, Huneeus N, Baldasano JM, et al. Atmospheric dust modeling from meso to global scales with the online NMMB/BSCDust model–Part 1: Model description, annual simulations and evaluation. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 2011 Dec 21;11(24):13001-27.
21. Huneeus N, Schulz M, Balkanski Y, Griesfeller J, Kinne S, Prospero J, et al. Global dust model intercomparison
in AeroCom phase I. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. 2010 Jan 1;10(10).
22. Nickovic S, Kallos G, Papadopoulos A, Kakaliagou O. A model for prediction of desert dust cycle in the atmosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2001 Aug 27;106(D16):18113-29.
23. Pérez C, Nickovic S, Baldasano JM, Sicard M, Rocadenbosch F, Cachorro VE. A long Saharan dust event
over the western Mediterranean: Lidar, Sun photometer observations, and regional dust modeling. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2006 Aug 16;111(D15).
24. Ataie F, Irannezhad P, Farahani M, Alizadeh Chobari O. Study of short-wave radiative forcing by dust in Middle
East, The Assembly of Articles of Geophysics of Iran, May 2016, pp.390-302.